Forecasting models for the Chinese macroeconomy in a data-rich environment: Evidence from large dimensional approximate factor models with mixed-frequency data

Our paper contributes to the nascent literature on forecasting the Chinese macroeconomy in a data-rich environment. We perform a horse race among a large set of traditional models and two classes of factor models with 251 monthly and 34 quarterly macroeconomic variables over the period from January 2002 to June 2018. We find evidence that mixed-frequency factor models provide superior forecasts of the CPI, RPI, investment, and consumption when compared to the simple benchmark. During the Global Financial Crisis period, we find little evidence of superiority of factor models over the simple benchmark AR(p) model.     

国家审计与城市创业活跃度

基于国家审计信息理论和免疫系统理论，以中国278个城市2009—2018年的面板数据为样本，分析国家审计对城市创业活跃度的影响。研究表明，国家审计监督治理能够显著提升城市创业活跃度，该结论在一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。机制分析发现，国家审计作为一项外部监督机制，能够改善地区政务、市场、金融和司法环境，进而提升城市创业活跃度。进一步，国家审计的治理效应在东部地区、规模较小城市以及高政府创新偏好的样本中更明显。研究结论印证了高质量审计监督能够有效保障经济社会高质量发展，切实将制度优势转化为治理效能，进而优化城市创业环境、提高城市创业活跃度。     

国家审计能否抑制非金融国有企业影子银行业务？

抑制非金融国有企业开展影子银行业务，促进实体企业脱虚向实，推动实体经济发展，是新形势下国家审计的内在要求。选取2008—2018年非金融上市国有企业及其下属上市子公司作为研究样本，利用多重差分模型，验证了国家审计对非金融国有企业影子银行业务具有抑制效应，并且，国家审计通过连续监督和国家审计公告发挥抑制作用，且企业信息披露质量在抑制非金融国有企业影子银行业务过程中发挥中介作用。进一步研究发现，国家审计在内部控制水平更高、融资约束更强以及“子强母弱”型的非金融国有企业中对影子银行业务产生的抑制作用更为显著，审计协同机制对非金融国有企业影子银行业务产生的抑制效应更显著。     

基于行为特征与心理需求的儿童友好型 社区户外活动空间研究

“儿童友好城市建设”已被正式纳入中国的第十四 个五年规划。系统化认知儿童日常户外行为需求及其与社区 建成环境之间的矛盾对建设儿童友好型城市具有紧迫要义。 基于儿童视角，以日常生活圈尺度的社区户外空间为研究对 象，调研儿童日常户外行为特征、户外空间需求和满意度， 从场地空间、土地利用、道路系统和边界空间4个层面采集社 区建成环境各要素属性，经数据分析，明确影响儿童户外行 为及满意度建成环境的关键指标，包括儿童适宜活动空间面 积、周边建筑密度、步行道路连接度和边界空间出入口密度 等，并在此基础上探讨提升社区户外空间儿童友好度的指标 建议值及策略。     

知识场活性、资源拼凑与新创企业创新绩效

基于对小微企业双创基地入驻企业的调查数据，构建出以知识场活性为自变量、新创企业创新绩效为因变量的概念模型，并将资源拼凑作为中介变量来分析。结果表明：知识场活跃度和知识场开放度均对新创企业创新绩效具有正向影响，资源拼凑具有中介作用；定制化服务对资源拼凑与新创企业创新绩效具有正向调节作用。研究结论丰富了“知识场活性→资源拼凑→新创企业创新绩效”这一逻辑主线的研究，对如何提升新创企业创新绩效具有一定的指导意义。     

Outsourcing government relations: Use of outside lobbyists when in-house capacity exists

To advance their interests by shaping public policies and influencing government decision-making, companies use internal resources, outside lobbyists, or trade associations to lobby. This article examines companies’ use of outside lobbyists even though in-house capacity exists and explores how these resources complement each other. The study aims to offer practical advice to companies and lobbying consultancies regarding the optimal use of internal and external government relations resources. Another aim of the study is to examine how companies monitor the lobbying efforts of the consultancies they hire. Semistructured interviews were conducted with 35 in-house government relations managers and executives to accomplish these goals. The research showed that companies engage with outside lobbyists for two leading reasons: to help with specific issues that have no internal expertise and to provide surge capacity. The interviews identified six ways companies use outside lobbyists: they provide (1) strategic advice, (2) external validation, (3) political intelligence, (4) contact plans, (5) logistical support, and (6) assistance with tough conversations.     

南京熙南里历史文化街区体验价值增值路径分析

游客体验及其体验价值是历史文化街区旅游开发研究的重要内容之一。以小红书App分享的熙南里历史文化街区照片为研究数据，采用质性研究方法提取照片隐含的价值要素，并基于凝视心理活动分析框架构建游客体验价值的增值路径。研究表明：（1）熙南里历史文化街区的体验价值体现在功能价值、享乐价值和符号价值3个层级；（2）历史文化街区可以通过游览体验和视觉选择两条路径实现享乐价值和符号价值的增值，进而间接提升其功能价值；（3）节庆活动、文化演艺活动和娱乐体验活动的参与程度与享乐价值直接相关，符号价值则主要通过打卡和探店等行为提升社会声望价值，游客视觉选择的网红符号形象强于历史文化符号。基于此，研究从功能价值、享乐价值和符号价值三方面为历史文化街区提出具有普适性的提升策略。     

Detecting overproduction: Evidence from inventory write-down

We use inventory write-downs to differentiate opportunistic and non-opportunistic overproduction measures. We posit that non-opportunistic overproduction is positively associated with future write-downs because overproduction generally leads to excess inventory, while opportunistic overproduction (to inflate earnings) is negatively associated with write-downs because write-downs decrease earnings. We find that change-based proxies (deviations from past behaviour) are positively associated with the likelihood of future write-downs, whereas residual-based proxies (deviations from industry norms) are negatively associated with this likelihood, suggesting that the former (latter) primarily capture non-opportunistic (opportunistic) overproduction. Our study highlights the importance of using appropriate overproduction measures for each research setting.     

影视拍摄环境影响评价指标体系研究

在论述了影视拍摄环境影响评价的必要性及其意义的基础上,分析了影视拍摄对环境的影响,在总结了许多学者对生态环境影响评价指标体系和方法等方面的研究成果基础上,尝试着建立了影视拍摄环境影响评价指标体系,并提出采用德尔菲法确定指标的权重的思路,为影视拍摄环境影响评价提供了支持。